VS Partners’ Q1 2024 Turkiye Real Estate Marker Figures research report is published!

Our research report includes the latest data and our market evaluations regarding the retail, office, logistics, hotel, and residential markets, along with the real estate investment market. Our key findings are as follows:

Expectations regarding the improvement of monetary, fiscal, and income policies and future projections for Turkiye have strengthened for the mid-term.

Total foreign investment inflows to Turkiye accounted for 1.48 billion USD Q1 2024, with a 43.4% yoy decline compared to the same period of the previous year. Commercial real estate prime yields recorded at 8.00% for shopping centres, 6.50% for high-street shops, 7.50% for offices, and 8.50% for logistics assets as of Q1 2024.

The shopping centre performance remained positive by 19% yoy inflation-adjusted turnover growth in the Q1 2024.

As of Q1 2024, the existing shopping centre supply is at 14.2 million sq m across 456 centres in Turkiye. With approximately 60,000 sq m leasable area, a total of two shopping centre projects entered the retail market in Q1 2024. The retail categories recording the highest turnover growth are electronics and technology, men and women clothing, active wear, cosmetics, and food and beverage, respectively.

The vacancy rate in the CBD recorded as 5.9% as of Q1 2024.

The existing Grade-A office supply in Istanbul recorded at 6.6 million sq m GLA, while 788 thousand sq m is underconstruction. TRY-based prime office rent rose to 1,400 per sq m per month, with a 133% yoy rise. While the majority of the Grade-A buildings located in the Ataşehir and Kozyatağı regions reached full occupancy, take-up volume in the CBD increased by 73% yoy as of Q1 2024.

While no new warehouse leasing transactions were recorded in the Istanbul and Kocaeli markets, we expect an increase in take-up volume in Q2 2024 with the completion of ongoing negotiations.

While the total existing logistics supply in the Marmara region, including the Istanbul and Kocaeli submarkets, was recorded at approximately 11 million sq m as of Q1 2024, TRY-based prime logistics rent rose to 275 per sq m per month, an 83.3% yoy rise. 

Average expenditure per capita is moderated in Q1 2024 with a 4.3% yoy decrease.

​In Q1 2024, a total of 9.1 million visitors visited Türkiye, with a 16.7% increase compared to the previous year and a 32.2% rise compared to 2019. While tourism revenues reached 8.8 billion USD, with a 5.4% yoy rise, average expenditure per capita decreased by 4.3% yoy and recorded at 975 USD.

Residential construction activities gained momentum; however, mortgaged sales continued to decline due to the high mortgage rates.

While the total number of residential units receiving construction permits rose by 35.5% yoy in the first three months of 2024, the total number of residential units receiving occupancy permits increased by 38.5% in Turkiye. While the total residential sales numbers remained flat compared to the same period of the previous year, mortgaged sales dropped by 53% yoy due to the high interest rates.